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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Alanyaspor travel to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to take on Samsunspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 1 December 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Samsunspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Samsunspor at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Samsunspor have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Samsunspor, 2 for Alanyaspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Alanyaspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 49% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 51% | Alanyaspor 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.29 xG and Alanyaspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.935 / defence 0.797 | Alanyaspor attack 0.971 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.364. Samsunspor's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Samsunspor games / 49 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 40% | Draw 32% | Alanyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Alanyaspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Alanyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Samsunspor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Samsunspor 50% | Alanyaspor 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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