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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Konyaspor make the trip to to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 January 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Rizespor (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rizespor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rizespor's home record at : 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rizespor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Konyaspor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Konyaspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Rizespor, 2 for Konyaspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Rizespor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Rizespor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Konyaspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rizespor 56% and Konyaspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 59% | Konyaspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.82 xG and Konyaspor 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.079 / defence 1.049 | Konyaspor attack 1.052 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Rizespor games / 34 Konyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Rizespor 49% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 4.00. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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