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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Konyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Rizespor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Konyaspor have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Konyaspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Rizespor, 2 for Konyaspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Rizespor — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Konyaspor — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 57% versus Konyaspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Konyaspor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.63 xG and Konyaspor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.074 / defence 0.999 | Konyaspor attack 1.061 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.122. Data: 67 Rizespor games / 67 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 45% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Konyaspor 4.00. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 40% | Konyaspor 60%.

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