Rizespor 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Konyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Rizespor (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Konyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Konyaspor away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Konyaspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Rizespor — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Konyaspor — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 42% versus Konyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Konyaspor 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.79 xG and Konyaspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.055 / defence 0.950 | Konyaspor attack 0.856 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.205. Data: 52 Rizespor games / 53 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 55% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Rizespor (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 40% | Konyaspor 50%.

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