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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Rizespor take on Kocaelispor.

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Full Analysis

Çaykur Didi Stadyumu plays host to Rizespor versus Kocaelispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Rizespor (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rizespor have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Kocaelispor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kocaelispor's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Kocaelispor are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rizespor 0W, Kocaelispor 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Kocaelispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 59% versus Kocaelispor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 54% | Kocaelispor 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.19 xG and Kocaelispor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.863 / defence 1.087 | Kocaelispor attack 0.735 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.334. Data: 58 Rizespor games / 22 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 35% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 29%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Kocaelispor 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 40% | Kocaelispor 50% BTTS from recent games.

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