Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Kasımpaşa at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 6W 2D 2L at — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rizespor at 1.70 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Rizespor have won 2, Kasımpaşa 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 54% versus Kasımpaşa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Kasımpaşa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.25 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.926 / defence 1.097 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Data: 37 Rizespor games / 37 Kasımpaşa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 35% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 38%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Kasımpaşa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 35% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Rizespor 1.25 / Kasımpaşa 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.926 / def 1.097 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Kasımpaşa xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 35% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rizespor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (8 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 2 | Kasımpaşa 4W.
What form are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.93x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.74
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.54
1.30
Kasımpaşa xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.30 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 12W 11D 14L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 9W 13D 15L from 37 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.27 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 6D 8L from 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 0.97 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 13D 15L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Rizespor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.50 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2026, when Rizespor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rizespor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 44%, Kasımpaşa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Rizespor) and 56% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 28% of games; Kasımpaşa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rizespor's recent matches and 61% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Rizespor's matches and 56% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Rizespor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.