Rizespor 6-3 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rizespor face Göztepe.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Rizespor welcome Göztepe to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 36). Kick-off is Sunday 18 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rizespor have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Rizespor's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rizespor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Göztepe — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Göztepe have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rizespor at 1.30 PPG versus Göztepe's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Rizespor's games and 70% of Göztepe's (from Rizespor's last 10 home games and Göztepe's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Rizespor have won 2, Göztepe 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Dec 2024, ended Rizespor 0–3 Göztepe — a Göztepe win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rizespor trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Göztepe trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 54% versus Göztepe 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 54% | Göztepe 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.57 xG and Göztepe 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.936 / defence 0.914 | Göztepe attack 0.812 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Data: built from Rizespor's last 71 games and Göztepe's last 33.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 22%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.91 | Draw 3.94 | Göztepe 4.49. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Rizespor 60% (last 10 home games) | Göztepe 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 36 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Rizespor 1.57 / Göztepe 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.936 / def 0.914 | Göztepe attack 0.812 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Göztepe xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Göztepe FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Göztepe kick off?
Rizespor vs Göztepe kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Rizespor 6 - 3 Göztepe.
Where is Rizespor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Göztepe part of?
Rizespor vs Göztepe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 36) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 52% chance of winning, Göztepe a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rizespor and Göztepe will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Rizespor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.94) and Göztepe's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 71 games and Göztepe's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.94
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.50
0.93
Göztepe xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
5%
21.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Göztepe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.93 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rizespor come into this having played 33 games, going 12W 4D 17L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (12W 11D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.21 PPG, Göztepe on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rizespor's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across their last 16 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 0.69 points per game from their last 16 away games (2W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.64 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 64%.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
Rizespor (Home) vs Göztepe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Rizespor vs Göztepe Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 12W 4D 17L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 12W 11D 10L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Göztepe away?
Rizespor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.56 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 May 2022, when Rizespor won Göztepe 1-7 Rizespor.
Rizespor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
3
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Göztepe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Göztepe?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 3, Göztepe have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Göztepe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Göztepe 2-2 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 83% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 56%, Göztepe 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rizespor) and 50% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Göztepe in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Göztepe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Göztepe matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Rizespor's games and 69% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rizespor and Göztepe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rizespor's recent games and 50% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Göztepe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Rizespor's recent matches and 81% of Göztepe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 6-3 hammering of Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Göztepe 6-3 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.57 xG and Göztepe 0.93 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 6-3 for 9 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Göztepe attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 22%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 54%, Göztepe 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.21 PPG, Göztepe 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.