Rizespor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 3 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Rizespor's favour (1.00 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Rizespor 1W, Fatih Karagümrük 2W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 0–4 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 60% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.55 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.890 / defence 1.033 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.913 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.327. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Rizespor games / 10 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 42% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 28%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 42% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Rizespor 1.55 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.890 / def 1.033 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.913 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Fatih Karagümrük xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Rizespor 1 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 42% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (4 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 2W.
What form are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Rizespor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.89x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.91x) against Rizespor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 46/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.28
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.81
1.25
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
6%
16.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.25 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 2W 4D 4L from 10 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 8L across 10 games — 0.40 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rizespor by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Rizespor's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.00 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 4-0 on 28 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rizespor
1
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Rizespor and 100% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rizespor's games and 75% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Rizespor's matches and 100% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.55 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.91 / defence 1.32, drawn from 46/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 42% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 28%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.