Rizespor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rizespor face Fatih Karagümrük.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Friday 1 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 1.33 PPG across their last 3 games: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: L D W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.33 for Rizespor, 1.40 for Fatih Karagümrük — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Fatih Karagümrük and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 15 Jan 2022, ended Rizespor 0–2 Fatih Karagümrük — a Fatih Karagümrük win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 67% versus Fatih Karagümrük 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rizespor 67% | Fatih Karagümrük 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.82 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.684 / defence 0.943 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.196 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.339. Rizespor's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Rizespor's last 3 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 17% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 5.93 | Draw 3.00 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.01. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Rizespor's last 3 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rizespor 67% (last 3 games) | Fatih Karagümrük 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Rizespor 3 games, Fatih Karagümrük 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 4 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 1 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 17% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Rizespor 0.82 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.684 / def 0.943 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.196 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Fatih Karagümrük xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 1 September 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Rizespor 1 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 4) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 17% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 50% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.68x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (1.20x) against Rizespor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 3 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
17%
5.93
33%
3.00
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.33
1.51
Fatih Karagümrük xG
5.93
17%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
4%
26.85
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 14.6 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.51 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-W in the last five.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Rizespor against 1.33 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Rizespor (Home) vs Fatih Karagümrük (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Rizespor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won Fatih Karagümrük 4-0 Rizespor on 28 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rizespor
1
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 67%, Fatih Karagümrük 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Rizespor and 0% for Fatih Karagümrük.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 33%; Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Rizespor's recent matches and 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Rizespor's recent games and 0% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Rizespor's recent matches and 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.82 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.51 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.68 / defence 0.94 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.20 / defence 0.90, drawn from 3/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 17% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Rizespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 67%, Fatih Karagümrük 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.33 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.