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Poisson rates Rizespor at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Eyüpspor encounter.

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Match Analysis

Rizespor host Eyüpspor at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rizespor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at , Rizespor have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rizespor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.40 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 0–4 with Eyüpspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Rizespor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 56% versus Eyüpspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 59% | Eyüpspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.80 xG and Eyüpspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.079 / defence 1.049 | Eyüpspor attack 1.007 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Rizespor games / 34 Eyüpspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Rizespor 49% | Draw 27% | Eyüpspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Eyüpspor 4.17. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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