🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Rizespor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Alanyaspor travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025, 10:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alanyaspor away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Alanyaspor's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Rizespor's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rizespor, 3 for Alanyaspor and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Alanyaspor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Rizespor trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Alanyaspor trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 48% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 58% | Alanyaspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.44 xG and Alanyaspor 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.025 / defence 1.041 | Alanyaspor attack 0.712 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.194. Data: 62 Rizespor games / 62 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rizespor 49% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Alanyaspor 4.55. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alanyaspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 60% | Alanyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights