Pendikspor 1-5 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pendikspor face Hatayspor.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Pendikspor and Hatayspor meet at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Current Form

Hatayspor have collected 0.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 0D 10L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.

Hatayspor away from home: 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.84 xG and Hatayspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Hatayspor attack 0.718 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.421. Hatayspor's defence rating of 1.257 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pendikspor's projected output up. Hatayspor's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Data: built from Pendikspor's last 0 games and Hatayspor's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Pendikspor 53% | Draw 23% | Hatayspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 1.89 | Draw 4.39 | Hatayspor 4.14. Pendikspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Pendikspor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pendikspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's sample (Pendikspor 0 games, Hatayspor 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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