🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Çorum FK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Kasımpaşa travel to Corum Stadyumu to take on Çorum FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.55 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.019 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Çorum FK games / 34 Kasımpaşa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Çorum FK 40% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 31%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Kasımpaşa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Çorum FK at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Çorum FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights