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Poisson model rates Çorum FK at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Çorum FK host Alanyaspor at Corum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor away from home this season: 0W 7D 3L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.29 xG and Alanyaspor 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Alanyaspor attack 0.929 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Çorum FK games / 34 Alanyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Çorum FK 36% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Çorum FK as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Çorum FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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