🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Konyaspor have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Rizespor's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Konyaspor. A 0.60 PPG lead over Rizespor (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 53% versus Rizespor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 41% | Rizespor 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Rizespor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.943 / defence 0.826 | Rizespor attack 0.857 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.215. Data: 71 Konyaspor games / 70 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 56% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 20%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Rizespor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Rizespor 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights