Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 5 December 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gaziantep FK have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Konyaspor, 3 for Gaziantep FK and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Gaziantep FK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.11 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / defence 0.992 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.959 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Konyaspor games / 44 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 34% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 38%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Gaziantep FK 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 20% | Gaziantep FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 34% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Konyaspor 1.11 / Gaziantep FK 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / def 0.992 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.959 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Gaziantep FK xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is scheduled to kick off at 10:30 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 34% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (10 meetings): Konyaspor 5W | Draws 2 | Gaziantep FK 3W.
What form are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.69x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.96x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
34%
2.96
28%
3.53
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.30
1.19
Gaziantep FK xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.19 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 12D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.02 PPG from 44 outings (11W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.02 for Gaziantep FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Konyaspor's home form reads 7W 7D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.18 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 12D 21L in their last 44 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.27 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Konyaspor
2
Draws
3
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 5, Gaziantep FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 46%, Gaziantep FK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Konyaspor) and 64% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 32% of games; Gaziantep FK in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 54% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Konyaspor's recent games and 64% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.