Konyaspor 1-3 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Galatasaray at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Galatasaray encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Galatasaray in Süper Lig (matchday 38). Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Konyaspor have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Galatasaray (all games): 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Galatasaray have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Galatasaray are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Konyaspor, 2 for Galatasaray and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Jan 2024, ended Konyaspor 0–3 Galatasaray — a Galatasaray win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Galatasaray half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 51% versus Galatasaray 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 44% | Galatasaray 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Galatasaray have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 75% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.91 xG and Galatasaray 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.893 / defence 0.929 | Galatasaray attack 1.619 / defence 0.661. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.248. Galatasaray bring a tight defence (rating 0.661, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Konyaspor's projected output down. Galatasaray have an above-average attack rating of 1.619, which lifts their away xG to 1.88. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 73 games and Galatasaray's last 73.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 16% | Draw 25% | Galatasaray 58%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 6.16 | Draw 3.94 | Galatasaray 1.71. The model has a clear lean to Galatasaray (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Galatasaray's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Galatasaray 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 38 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 16% | Draw 25% | Galatasaray 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Konyaspor 0.91 / Galatasaray 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.893 / def 0.929 | Galatasaray attack 1.619 / def 0.661 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Galatasaray xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Galatasaray FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Galatasaray kick off?
Konyaspor vs Galatasaray kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Konyaspor 1 - 3 Galatasaray.
Where is Konyaspor vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Galatasaray part of?
Konyaspor vs Galatasaray is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 38) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 16% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Konyaspor and Galatasaray will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.89) and Galatasaray's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (1.62x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 73 games and Galatasaray's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
16%
6.16
25%
3.94
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.88
Galatasaray xG
6.16
16%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
15%
6.54
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
2%
40.27
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Galatasaray Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.88 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Galatasaray?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 29D 23L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Galatasaray's form line: 60W 7D 6L from 73 games, 2.56 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Galatasaray are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.28 PPG from their last 36 home games (11W 13D 12L).
On the road, Galatasaray have gone 27W 5D 4L from their last 36 away games — 2.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.36 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Galatasaray in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Galatasaray
Current Season
Konyaspor (Home) vs Galatasaray (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Current Season
Galatasaray
Current Season
❓ Konyaspor vs Galatasaray Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 21W 29D 23L in their last 73 games (1.26 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 60W 7D 6L in their last 73 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.28 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.39 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Konyaspor and Galatasaray, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won Konyaspor 0-4 Galatasaray on 30 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 3W 0D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Galatasaray — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
0
Draws
7
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Galatasaray H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Galatasaray?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 3, Galatasaray have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Galatasaray last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Konyaspor 0-4 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 50%, Galatasaray 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Konyaspor) and 58% (Galatasaray).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Galatasaray in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Galatasaray Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Galatasaray matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 36% of Galatasaray's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Konyaspor and Galatasaray matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Konyaspor's recent games and 58% of Galatasaray's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Galatasaray matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 65% of Galatasaray's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Galatasaray cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Konyaspor 1-3 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 0.91 xG and Galatasaray 1.88 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Galatasaray outscored their 1.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Galatasaray attack 1.62 / defence 0.66, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 16% | Draw 25% | Galatasaray 58%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 44%, Galatasaray 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Galatasaray's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.