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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Göztepe encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Göztepe travel to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium to take on Konyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Konyaspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Göztepe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Göztepe's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Konyaspor 1.70 PPG, Göztepe 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Göztepe and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Konyaspor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Göztepe in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 65% versus Göztepe 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Göztepe 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.42 xG and Göztepe 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.929 / defence 0.968 | Göztepe attack 0.932 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.144. Data: 34 Konyaspor games / 34 Göztepe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 44% | Draw 31% | Göztepe 25%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Göztepe 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Göztepe 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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