Konyaspor 1-0 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Konyaspor at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Göztepe travel to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu to take on Konyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Konyaspor — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Konyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Konyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Göztepe stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Göztepe's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Konyaspor are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Konyaspor's games and 80% of Göztepe's (from Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Göztepe's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Konyaspor have won 2, Göztepe 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2024, ended Konyaspor 0–2 Göztepe — a Göztepe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Göztepe in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 57% versus Göztepe 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Göztepe 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.59 xG and Göztepe 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.930 / defence 0.863 | Göztepe attack 0.862 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.197. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 67 games and Göztepe's last 28.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 21%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.88 | Draw 3.79 | Göztepe 4.87. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Göztepe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Göztepe 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 31 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Konyaspor 1.59 / Göztepe 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.930 / def 0.863 | Göztepe attack 0.862 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Göztepe xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Göztepe FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Konyaspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Göztepe.
Where is Konyaspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Göztepe part of?
Konyaspor vs Göztepe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 31) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 53% chance of winning, Göztepe a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Göztepe will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Konyaspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 67 games and Göztepe's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.79
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.48
0.89
Göztepe xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
4%
23.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Göztepe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.89 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Konyaspor come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 7D 13L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (10W 9D 9L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.11 PPG, Göztepe on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Konyaspor's home form reads 6W 5D 3L across their last 14 home games, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 0.57 points per game from their last 14 away games (1W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.64 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 61%.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
Konyaspor (Home) vs Göztepe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Konyaspor vs Göztepe Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 8W 7D 13L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 10W 9D 9L in their last 28 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Göztepe away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.64 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Apr 2022, when Konyaspor won Konyaspor 3-0 Göztepe.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
2
Draws
1
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Göztepe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 3, Göztepe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Göztepe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Konyaspor 0-0 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Göztepe?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 57%, Göztepe 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Konyaspor) and 50% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Göztepe in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Göztepe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Göztepe matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Konyaspor's games and 71% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Göztepe matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Göztepe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 79% of Göztepe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Göztepe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Göztepe 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.59 xG and Göztepe 0.89 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.86 against Göztepe attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 67/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 53% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 21%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Göztepe 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Göztepe's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.11 PPG, Göztepe 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.