Konyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Konyaspor face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Beşiktaş meet at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 4W 4D 2L at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Beşiktaş arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Beşiktaş in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Konyaspor's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
It is worth noting that Beşiktaş have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Beşiktaş 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Beşiktaş 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.15 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.954 / defence 1.077 | Beşiktaş attack 1.134 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.178. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 Konyaspor games / 63 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 30% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 43%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 30% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Konyaspor 1.15 / Beşiktaş 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.954 / def 1.077 | Beşiktaş attack 1.134 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Beşiktaş.
Where is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 30% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Konyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (7 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Beşiktaş 4W.
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.95x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.13x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
30%
3.34
27%
3.74
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.59
1.44
Beşiktaş xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.44 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 16W 20D 27L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 28W 16D 19L from 63 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 9W 10D 11L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.44 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 16W 20D 27L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 28W 16D 19L in their last 63 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.30 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Beşiktaş 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Konyaspor) and 47% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Konyaspor's games and 60% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Konyaspor's recent games and 47% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Beşiktaş 1-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.15 xG and Beşiktaş 1.44 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Beşiktaş landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Beşiktaş attack 1.13 / defence 0.73, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 30% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 43%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.