Konyaspor 0-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 35%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Beşiktaş meet at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Konyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Konyaspor have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beşiktaş have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Beşiktaş have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Beşiktaş arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Beşiktaş and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Jun 2023, ended Konyaspor 3–3 Beşiktaş — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 55% versus Beşiktaş 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 48% | Beşiktaş 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Beşiktaş have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Beşiktaş surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Konyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.45 xG and Beşiktaş 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.892 / defence 0.971 | Beşiktaş attack 1.099 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.299. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 42 games and Beşiktaş's last 42.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 35% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 33%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.84 | Draw 3.11 | Beşiktaş 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.45 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 80% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 7 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 35% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Konyaspor 1.45 / Beşiktaş 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.892 / def 0.971 | Beşiktaş attack 1.099 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Beşiktaş xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Konyaspor 0 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 7) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 35% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Konyaspor and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.89x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.10x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 42 games and Beşiktaş's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
35%
2.84
32%
3.11
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.83
1.39
Beşiktaş xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.39 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 14W 18D 10L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Beşiktaş's form line: 26W 10D 6L from 42 games, 2.10 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 21 home games (6W 9D 6L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 11W 5D 5L from their last 21 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 2.05 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Konyaspor (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 14W 18D 10L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 26W 10D 6L in their last 42 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.29 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beşiktaş have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
6
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Beşiktaş 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 57%, Beşiktaş 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Konyaspor) and 57% (Beşiktaş).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Beşiktaş matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Konyaspor's games and 62% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Konyaspor's recent games and 57% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 86% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Konyaspor 0-2 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.45 xG and Beşiktaş 1.39 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Konyaspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Beşiktaş attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 35% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 33%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 48%, Beşiktaş 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.