🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Konyaspor host Alanyaspor at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Konyaspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 0W 7D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Konyaspor have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Alanyaspor, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Konyaspor.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Alanyaspor winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Alanyaspor have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Konyaspor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 65% and Alanyaspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Alanyaspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.41 xG and Alanyaspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.929 / defence 0.968 | Alanyaspor attack 0.932 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.144. Data: 34 Konyaspor games / 34 Alanyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Konyaspor 44% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Alanyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Konyaspor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 50% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights