Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Monday 5 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa's home record at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.60 for Trabzonspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Trabzonspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Kasımpaşa, 2 for Trabzonspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 67% and Trabzonspor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 65% | Trabzonspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.87 xG and Trabzonspor 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.209 / defence 1.241 | Trabzonspor attack 0.947 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.201. Data: 69 Kasımpaşa games / 69 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Trabzonspor 3.45. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 90% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.87 / Trabzonspor 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.209 / def 1.241 | Trabzonspor attack 0.947 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Trabzonspor xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 48% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Record (6 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 2 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.21x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.95x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
48%
2.06
22%
4.45
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.29
1.41
Trabzonspor xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
4%
22.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.41 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Kasımpaşa have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 26W 20D 23L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Trabzonspor's form line: 33W 13D 23L from 69 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.62 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kasımpaşa have posted 1.53 PPG from 34 outings (14W 10D 10L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 11W 8D 15L from 34 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.74 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 26W 20D 23L in their last 69 games (1.42 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 33W 13D 23L in their last 69 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Trabzonspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.53 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
4
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 71%, Trabzonspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Kasımpaşa and 53% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Kasımpaşa's games and 56% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 53% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.87 xG and Trabzonspor 1.41 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.21 / defence 1.24 against Trabzonspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 48% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 29%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 65%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.42 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.