Kasımpaşa 0-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kasımpaşa face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Konyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Konyaspor stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.70 PPG versus Konyaspor's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Konyaspor 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Kasımpaşa 0–2 Konyaspor — a Konyaspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Konyaspor trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 61% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 64% | Konyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.74 xG and Konyaspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.143 / defence 1.279 | Konyaspor attack 0.816 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.198. Kasımpaşa's defence rating of 1.279 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Konyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 67 games and Konyaspor's last 67.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.11 | Draw 3.76 | Konyaspor 3.86. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Konyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 70% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 32 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Kasımpaşa 1.74 / Konyaspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.143 / def 1.279 | Konyaspor attack 0.816 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Konyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 32) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 47% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 1.14x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kasımpaşa's last 67 games and Konyaspor's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.76
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.99
1.25
Konyaspor xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.25 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 67 games, going 25W 14D 28L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.25 PPG from 67 outings (19W 27D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.33 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 13W 7D 13L across their last 33 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 33 away games (9W 14D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 25W 14D 28L in their last 67 games (1.33 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 19W 27D 21L in their last 67 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Konyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.39 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
6
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Konyaspor have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Kasımpaşa 0-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 70%, Konyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Kasımpaşa and 54% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Kasımpaşa's games and 54% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 54% of Konyaspor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 64% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Kasımpaşa 0-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.74 xG and Konyaspor 1.25 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.14 / defence 1.28 against Konyaspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 47% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 26%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 64%, Konyaspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.33 PPG, Konyaspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.