Kasımpaşa 2-0 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Kasımpaşa and Eyüpspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 3D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Eyüpspor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor away from home this season: 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Eyüpspor are 0.60 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Eyüpspor in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading

Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 67% and Eyüpspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 60% | Eyüpspor 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.10 xG and Eyüpspor 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.738 / defence 1.253 | Eyüpspor attack 0.909 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.229. Kasımpaşa's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Kasımpaşa games / 15 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 28% | Draw 29% | Eyüpspor 43%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Eyüpspor 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Eyüpspor 75% BTTS from recent games.

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