Kasımpaşa 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 10 as Kasımpaşa welcome Beşiktaş to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Beşiktaş — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Beşiktaş 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 67% and Beşiktaş 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 60% | Beşiktaş 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.09 xG and Beşiktaş 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.983 / defence 1.056 | Beşiktaş attack 1.119 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.312. Data: 45 Kasımpaşa games / 45 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 24% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 45%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Beşiktaş 2.22. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Kasımpaşa dominate the H2H record, yet Beşiktaş are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 90% | Beşiktaş 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 24% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.09 / Beşiktaş 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.983 / def 1.056 | Beşiktaş attack 1.119 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Beşiktaş xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 24% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Record (8 meetings): Kasımpaşa 4W | Draws 2 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.98) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
24%
4.09
30%
3.32
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.65
1.55
Beşiktaş xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
5%
19.29
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.55 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 17D 15L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.73 PPG from 45 outings (22W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 9D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.41 points per game from 22 outings (7W 10D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.64 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Beşiktaş in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 13W 17D 15L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 22W 12D 11L in their last 45 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.09 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Kasımpaşa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kasımpaşa at 77%, Beşiktaş at 54%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Kasımpaşa) and 32% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Kasımpaşa's games and 54% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 32% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, as Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.09 xG and Beşiktaş 1.55 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Beşiktaş attack 1.12 / defence 0.83, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 24% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 45%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 60%, Beşiktaş 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.