Kasımpaşa 2-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Kasımpaşa, 1.30 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Kasımpaşa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Kasımpaşa and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 67% and Alanyaspor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 67% | Alanyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.99 xG and Alanyaspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.262 / defence 1.403 | Alanyaspor attack 0.733 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.179. Kasımpaşa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Kasımpaşa games / 64 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 55% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Alanyaspor 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 60% | Alanyaspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 55% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.99 / Alanyaspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.262 / def 1.403 | Alanyaspor attack 0.733 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Alanyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 55% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Kasımpaşa 4W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.73x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.51
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.20
1.21
Alanyaspor xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
14%
7.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
3%
32.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.21 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 19D 22L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.30 PPG from 64 outings (20W 23D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.30 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 12W 9D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.03 points per game from 31 outings (7W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.30 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 23W 19D 22L in their last 64 games (1.38 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 20W 23D 21L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Alanyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.45 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kasımpaşa won 4-1 on 4 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 7, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 68%, Alanyaspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Kasımpaşa) and 39% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Kasımpaşa's games and 48% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 39% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Alanyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.99 xG and Alanyaspor 1.21 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.26 / defence 1.40 against Alanyaspor attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 55% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 23%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 67%, Alanyaspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.38 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.