🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Trabzonspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 17 as Gençlerbirliği S.K. welcome Trabzonspor to Eryaman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 22 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Gençlerbirliği S.K. — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gençlerbirliği S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have posted 3W 1D 3L at Eryaman Stadium — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Trabzonspor's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

In-Play Profile

Gençlerbirliği S.K. in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gençlerbirliği S.K. 56% versus Trabzonspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 56% | Trabzonspor 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.30 xG and Trabzonspor 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.029 / defence 1.075 | Trabzonspor attack 1.317 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.277. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Gençlerbirliği S.K. games / 52 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 24% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 46%. Fair-value odds: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 2.17. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 57% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights