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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 26 as Gaziantep FK welcome Eyüpspor to Gaziantep Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gaziantep Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Eyüpspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gaziantep FK 1.40 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gaziantep FK, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Eyüpspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Gaziantep FK trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Eyüpspor trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 54% versus Eyüpspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 58% | Eyüpspor 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.15 xG and Eyüpspor 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.819 / defence 0.686 | Eyüpspor attack 0.935 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.191. Gaziantep FK's defence rating of 0.686 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Gaziantep FK games / 24 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 33% | Eyüpspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Eyüpspor 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Gaziantep FK 40% | Eyüpspor 60%.

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