Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gaziantep FK host Alanyaspor at Kalyon Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Kalyon Stadyumu this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's away record: 0W 8D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Gaziantep FK) versus 1.00 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Alanyaspor have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Gaziantep FK.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Alanyaspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 60% versus Alanyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 62% | Alanyaspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.37 xG and Alanyaspor 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.925 / defence 1.165 | Alanyaspor attack 1.084 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.175. Data: 63 Gaziantep FK games / 63 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 33% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 80% | Alanyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 33% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.37 / Alanyaspor 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.925 / def 1.165 | Alanyaspor attack 1.084 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Alanyaspor xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Gaziantep FK 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 33% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
Record (8 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 6W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gaziantep FK's attack at 0.93x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
33%
3.07
30%
3.36
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.86
1.49
Alanyaspor xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
7%
13.57
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.49 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 20W 18D 25L from 63 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 18W 22D 23L across 63 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 1.24 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 14W 8D 9L from 31 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 5W 13D 13L across 31 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gaziantep FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 20W 18D 25L in their last 63 games (1.24 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 18W 22D 23L in their last 63 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Alanyaspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.61 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
3
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 55%, Alanyaspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Gaziantep FK) and 48% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 26% of games; Alanyaspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Gaziantep FK's games and 64% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 48% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK and Alanyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.37 xG and Alanyaspor 1.49 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Alanyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 33% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 38%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 62%, Alanyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 1.24 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.