Göztepe 2-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Göztepe face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu plays host to Göztepe versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 8 games: 3W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Göztepe's home record over their last 4 home games: 3W 1D 0L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from their last 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Göztepe are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor (all games): 4W 6D 0L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Göztepe, 1.80 for Trabzonspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Göztepe, 2 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2022, ended Göztepe 2–4 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Göztepe — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 25% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 50% versus Trabzonspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Göztepe 50% | Trabzonspor 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.34 xG and Trabzonspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.277 / defence 1.004 | Trabzonspor attack 0.739 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.334. Göztepe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.277 — their 1.34 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Trabzonspor bring a tight defence (rating 0.727, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Göztepe's projected output down. Trabzonspor's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Göztepe's last 8 games and Trabzonspor's last 46.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 44% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.26 | Draw 3.52 | Trabzonspor 3.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Göztepe 50% (last 4 home games) | Trabzonspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 10 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 44% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Göztepe 1.34 / Trabzonspor 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.277 / def 1.004 | Trabzonspor attack 0.739 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Trabzonspor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Göztepe vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Göztepe vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Göztepe 2 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor part of?
Göztepe vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 10) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 44% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Göztepe and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Göztepe vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (1.28) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.74x) against Göztepe's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Göztepe's last 8 games and Trabzonspor's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.52
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.33
0.99
Trabzonspor xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Göztepe vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.99 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Göztepe come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 3D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (2W 6D 0L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Göztepe against 1.50 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Göztepe's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across their last 4 home games, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 4 away games (0W 4D 0L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Göztepe are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.00 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Trabzonspor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
Göztepe (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Göztepe
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Göztepe vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Göztepe and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 2W 6D 0L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Trabzonspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.50 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Göztepe and Trabzonspor, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Göztepe
2
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Göztepe vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Göztepe have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Trabzonspor 1-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Trabzonspor's games tend to start slowly — only 25% have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Trabzonspor 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Göztepe) and 0% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 75%; Trabzonspor in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Göztepe vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Göztepe and Trabzonspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Göztepe's recent matches and 25% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Göztepe and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Göztepe's recent games and 0% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Göztepe's recent matches and 25% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Trabzonspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.34 xG and Trabzonspor 0.99 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.28 / defence 1.00 against Trabzonspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.73, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 44% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 27%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 50%, Trabzonspor 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.50 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.