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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Çorum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 9 as Göztepe welcome Çorum FK to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Göztepe's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Göztepe are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.82 xG and Çorum FK 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.996 / defence 1.011 | Çorum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Göztepe games / 0 Çorum FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Göztepe 55% | Draw 26% | Çorum FK 18%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Çorum FK 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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