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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu plays host to Göztepe versus Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Göztepe have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Eyüpspor are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Göztepe lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Eyüpspor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 56% versus Eyüpspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 60% | Eyüpspor 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.82 xG and Eyüpspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.115 / defence 0.933 | Eyüpspor attack 0.956 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.195. Data: 25 Göztepe games / 26 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Göztepe 55% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Eyüpspor 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eyüpspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 40% | Eyüpspor 60%.

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