Göztepe 2-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Antalyaspor travel to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu to take on Göztepe. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Göztepe have posted 3W 5D 2L at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Göztepe) versus 0.80 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Göztepe have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Antalyaspor have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Göztepe winning.
The historical record gives Göztepe a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Göztepe in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 54% versus Antalyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 47% | Antalyaspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.33 xG and Antalyaspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.983 / defence 1.138 | Antalyaspor attack 0.718 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.147. Data: 66 Göztepe games / 66 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 43% | Draw 34% | Antalyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Antalyaspor 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Antalyaspor 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 43% | Draw 34% | Antalyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Göztepe 1.33 / Antalyaspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.983 / def 1.138 | Antalyaspor attack 0.718 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Antalyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Göztepe 2 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Antalyaspor part of?
Göztepe vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 43% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Göztepe and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Antalyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Göztepe 3W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 0W.
What form are Göztepe and Antalyaspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Göztepe's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
43%
2.34
34%
2.94
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.27
0.94
Antalyaspor xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.94 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Göztepe have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 25W 23D 18L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Antalyaspor's form line: 19W 15D 32L from 66 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.48 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Göztepe have posted 1.85 PPG from 33 outings (16W 13D 4L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 8D 20L from 33 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Göztepe are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.02 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 25W 23D 18L in their last 66 games (1.48 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 19W 15D 32L in their last 66 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Antalyaspor away?
Göztepe's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.85 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Göztepe have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Göztepe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Göztepe
2
Draws
0
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Antalyaspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Göztepe 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Antalyaspor?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 52%, Antalyaspor 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Göztepe) and 42% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Göztepe's recent matches and 39% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Göztepe's recent games and 42% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.33 xG and Antalyaspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Antalyaspor attack 0.72 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 43% | Draw 34% | Antalyaspor 23%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 47%, Antalyaspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.48 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.