Göztepe 0-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu to face Göztepe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Göztepe (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Göztepe against 1.60 for Alanyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Göztepe, 1 for Alanyaspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 60% versus Alanyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 65% | Alanyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 2.05 xG and Alanyaspor 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.238 / defence 0.717 | Alanyaspor attack 0.732 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.250. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 20 Göztepe games / 58 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 68% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 9%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Alanyaspor 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (68%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Göztepe at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 40% | Alanyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 68% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 43% | xG Göztepe 2.05 / Alanyaspor 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.238 / def 0.717 | Alanyaspor attack 0.732 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Alanyaspor xG
43%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Alanyaspor?
Göztepe 0 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Alanyaspor part of?
Göztepe vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 68% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Göztepe and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Alanyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 2 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Göztepe and Alanyaspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Göztepe's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.73x) against Göztepe's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
68%
1.46
22%
4.45
9%
10.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.70
0.66
Alanyaspor xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
10.89
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
36%
2.82
1%
84.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.66 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Göztepe have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 10W 4D 6L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor's form line: 6W 7D 7L from 20 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Göztepe are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alanyaspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Göztepe have posted 2.80 PPG from 10 outings (9W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alanyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Göztepe are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 10W 4D 6L in their last 20 games (1.70 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Alanyaspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.80 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Göztepe
4
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Alanyaspor?
From 7 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 0, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-2 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 40%, Alanyaspor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Göztepe) and 30% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Göztepe's recent matches and 40% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Göztepe's recent games and 30% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Göztepe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Göztepe 0-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 2.05 xG and Alanyaspor 0.66 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.24 / defence 0.72 against Alanyaspor attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 68% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 9%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 65%, Alanyaspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Alanyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.