Fenerbahçe 7-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Wednesday 10 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Fenerbahçe's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fenerbahçe at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Fenerbahçe. A 1.40 PPG lead over Konyaspor (2.30 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Konyaspor's last 10 away games) — Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Konyaspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Fenerbahçe edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Fenerbahçe 4–0 Konyaspor — a Fenerbahçe win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 54% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 72% | Konyaspor 48%). Note also that Konyaspor surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Fenerbahçe recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.57 xG and Konyaspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.534 / defence 0.928 | Konyaspor attack 0.888 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.271. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.534 — their 2.57 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Fenerbahçe's last 54 games and Konyaspor's last 54.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 69% | Draw 18% | Konyaspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.44 | Draw 5.45 | Konyaspor 8.10. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (69%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.57 / 1.05) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Konyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fenerbahçe 60% (last 10 home games) | Konyaspor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 16 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 69% | Draw 18% | Konyaspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Fenerbahçe 2.57 / Konyaspor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.534 / def 0.928 | Konyaspor attack 0.888 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Konyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor FAQs
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Wednesday 10 January 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 7 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 16) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 69% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.57. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.89x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Fenerbahçe's last 54 games and Konyaspor's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 1-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
69%
1.44
18%
5.45
12%
8.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.62
1.05
Konyaspor xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.45
18%
Draw
8.10
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
8%
13.09
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
1%
106.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.05 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.35 PPG on a 40W 7D 7L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Konyaspor's form line: 16W 21D 17L from 54 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.33 PPG from their last 27 home games (20W 3D 4L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 8W 11D 8L from their last 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.24 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe (Home) vs Konyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 40W 7D 7L in their last 54 games (2.35 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 16W 21D 17L in their last 54 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Konyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.33 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won Fenerbahçe 7-1 Konyaspor on 10 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 0D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Konyaspor have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Fenerbahçe 4-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 56%, Konyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Fenerbahçe and 63% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Fenerbahçe's games and 56% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 63% of Konyaspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 64% of Konyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 7-1 hammering of Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Konyaspor 7-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.57 xG and Konyaspor 1.05 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.53 / defence 0.93 against Konyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 69% | Draw 18% | Konyaspor 12%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 72%, Konyaspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.81 average — above their attacking norm. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.