Fenerbahçe 3-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Kasımpaşa.
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Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe host Kasımpaşa at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Fenerbahçe have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kasımpaşa in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Fenerbahçe have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 7 past contests while Kasımpaşa have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Fenerbahçe in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 55% and Kasımpaşa 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fenerbahçe 67% | Kasımpaşa 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.70 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.322 / defence 1.030 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.420 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.211. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — their λ of 2.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kasımpaşa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Kasımpaşa have an above-average attack strength of 1.420 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Fenerbahçe games / 60 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 57% | Draw 19% | Kasımpaşa 24%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.75 | Draw 5.26 | Kasımpaşa 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (2.70 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 78%. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 60% | Kasımpaşa 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 57% | Draw 19% | Kasımpaşa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 78% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.70 / Kasımpaşa 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.322 / def 1.030 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.420 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.70
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Kasımpaşa xG
78%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Fenerbahçe 3 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 57% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 24% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
Record (7 meetings): Fenerbahçe 7W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.70. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (6.6%), 2-2 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
57%
1.75
19%
5.31
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.6%
Home win
2 – 2
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.70
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
4.47
1.77
Kasımpaşa xG
1.75
57%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.28
22%
BTTS No
4.52
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
7%
14.86
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
2%
61.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.77 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 4.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 48W 9D 3L from 60 games, a 2.55 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 19L across 60 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 24W 3D 2L from 29 games — 2.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 11W 9D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.70 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 48W 9D 3L in their last 60 games (2.55 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 23W 18D 19L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.59 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fenerbahçe at 69%, Kasımpaşa at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Fenerbahçe and 69% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Fenerbahçe's games and 69% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 69% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Kasımpaşa 3-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.70 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.77 xG, a combined 4.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.32 / defence 1.03 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.42 / defence 1.26, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 57% | Draw 19% | Kasımpaşa 24%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Kasımpaşa 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.