🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Antalyaspor.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Antalyaspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Fenerbahçe (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fenerbahçe at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Antalyaspor's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.60 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Across 7 previous meetings, Fenerbahçe are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.

The historical record gives Fenerbahçe a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Fenerbahçe — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 55% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 66% | Antalyaspor 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.48 xG and Antalyaspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.326 / defence 0.983 | Antalyaspor attack 0.860 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.199. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 Fenerbahçe games / 62 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 69% | Draw 18% | Antalyaspor 13%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Antalyaspor 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 70% | Antalyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights