Fenerbahçe 4-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Fenerbahçe have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Adana Demirspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Adana Demirspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) — Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Adana Demirspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Fenerbahçe edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Fenerbahçe 0–0 Adana Demirspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 73%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 56% versus Adana Demirspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fenerbahçe 70% | Adana Demirspor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.27 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.472 / defence 0.989 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.941 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.182. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack rating of 1.472 — their 2.27 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Fenerbahçe's last 66 games and Adana Demirspor's last 66.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.60 | Draw 4.60 | Adana Demirspor 6.28. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.27 / 1.10) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fenerbahçe's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fenerbahçe 90% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 31 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Fenerbahçe 2.27 / Adana Demirspor 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.472 / def 0.989 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.941 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Adana Demirspor xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor FAQs
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 31) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 62% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.47) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.94x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Fenerbahçe's last 66 games and Adana Demirspor's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
62%
1.60
22%
4.60
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.37
1.10
Adana Demirspor xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
10%
9.66
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
2%
60.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.10 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 50W 9D 7L from 66 games, a 2.41 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 29W 21D 16L across 66 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Adana Demirspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 24W 5D 4L from their last 33 home games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 8W 14D 11L across their last 33 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.85 scored and 1.27 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 62%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Fenerbahçe (Home) vs Adana Demirspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor Form FAQs
What form are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 50W 9D 7L in their last 66 games (2.41 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 29W 21D 16L in their last 66 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.33 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won Adana Demirspor 0-4 Fenerbahçe on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
1
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Adana Demirspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2025: Adana Demirspor 0-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Fenerbahçe, 70% for Adana Demirspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Fenerbahçe and 54% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Fenerbahçe's games and 70% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 54% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 73% of Adana Demirspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Adana Demirspor 4-2 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.27 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.10 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.47 / defence 0.99 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 16%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 70%, Adana Demirspor 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.85 average — above their attacking norm. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.