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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Rizespor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Fatih Karagümrük have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Rizespor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.20 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 2W, Rizespor 2W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Rizespor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 48% versus Rizespor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Rizespor 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.11 xG and Rizespor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.805 / defence 0.996 | Rizespor attack 1.126 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.166. Data: 27 Fatih Karagümrük games / 62 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 29% | Draw 33% | Rizespor 38%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Rizespor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Rizespor 70% BTTS from recent games.

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