Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Fatih Karagümrük welcome Kasımpaşa to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 1 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Fatih Karagümrük — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Fatih Karagümrük at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fatih Karagümrük at 1.30 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Fatih Karagümrük hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Kasımpaşa and 1 draw.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Jun 2023, ended Fatih Karagümrük 3–0 Kasımpaşa — a Fatih Karagümrük win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Fatih Karagümrük and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 64% and Kasımpaşa 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 62% | Kasımpaşa 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.30 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.850 / defence 0.860 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.011 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.296. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 42 games and Kasımpaşa's last 42.

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 37% | Draw 35% | Kasımpaşa 28%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.73 | Draw 2.85 | Kasımpaşa 3.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Fatih Karagümrük 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 50% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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