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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fatih Karagümrük face Beşiktaş.

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Full Analysis

Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 1W 1D 5L from 7 home games — 0.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Beşiktaş (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Across the last 6 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Fatih Karagümrük's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 0–3 with Beşiktaş winning.

It is worth noting that Beşiktaş have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 46% versus Beşiktaş 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Beşiktaş 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 0.99 xG and Beşiktaş 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.858 / defence 1.220 | Beşiktaş attack 1.090 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.362. Data: 13 Fatih Karagümrük games / 49 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 18% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 55%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 29% | Beşiktaş 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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