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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Fatih Karagümrük take on Alanyaspor.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Alanyaspor travel to Ataturk Olimpiyat to take on Fatih Karagümrük. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters this season, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 5W 2D 3L at Ataturk Olimpiyat — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ataturk Olimpiyat.

Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 8D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fatih Karagümrük 1.40 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

Alanyaspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Fatih Karagümrük's 0 victories.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Alanyaspor winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Alanyaspor have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Alanyaspor trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 46% versus Alanyaspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Alanyaspor 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG and Alanyaspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.767 / defence 1.026 | Alanyaspor attack 0.842 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.135. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Fatih Karagümrük games / 69 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Alanyaspor 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Alanyaspor 70%.

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