Eyüpspor 3-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Eyüpspor welcome Samsunspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 10:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 home games — 2.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Samsunspor — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Trading Patterns

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 64% versus Samsunspor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Samsunspor 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.24 xG and Samsunspor 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.893 / defence 0.979 | Samsunspor attack 1.296 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.268. Samsunspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Eyüpspor games / 52 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 28% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 45%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Samsunspor 2.22. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 50% | Samsunspor 50%.

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