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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Konyaspor travel to to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2027, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Eyüpspor at this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Konyaspor are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eyüpspor, 2 for Konyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 44% versus Konyaspor 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 47% | Konyaspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.67 xG and Konyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.990 / defence 0.955 | Konyaspor attack 1.050 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.144. Data: 34 Eyüpspor games / 34 Konyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 48% | Draw 28% | Konyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Konyaspor 4.17. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Konyaspor (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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