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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 24 as Eyüpspor welcome Kayserispor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

On current form, Eyüpspor have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Eyüpspor have won 0, Kayserispor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Kayserispor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Kayserispor 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 2.01 xG and Kayserispor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.995 / defence 0.788 | Kayserispor attack 0.892 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.211. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Eyüpspor's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 22 Eyüpspor games / 59 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 63% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 14%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Kayserispor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Kayserispor 50%.

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