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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Antalyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 May 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Eyüpspor have posted 4W 2D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Antalyaspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Antalyaspor away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Eyüpspor) versus 1.40 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Eyüpspor, 0 for Antalyaspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2025, ended 4–1 with Eyüpspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 54% versus Antalyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 54% | Antalyaspor 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.95 xG and Antalyaspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.984 / defence 1.301 | Antalyaspor attack 0.684 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.250. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Eyüpspor games / 72 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 57% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Antalyaspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 60% | Antalyaspor 30%.

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