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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.

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Analysis

Alanyaspor make the trip to to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Eyüpspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Eyüpspor at this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.10 for Alanyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Eyüpspor, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Alanyaspor — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Eyüpspor winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Eyüpspor and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 44% versus Alanyaspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 47% | Alanyaspor 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.50 xG and Alanyaspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.990 / defence 0.952 | Alanyaspor attack 0.929 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Eyüpspor games / 34 Alanyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 46% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 4.35. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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