🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Erzurumspor FK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzurumspor FK vs Kocaelispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

plays host to Erzurumspor FK versus Kocaelispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 6 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Kocaelispor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kocaelispor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kocaelispor have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.27 xG and Kocaelispor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Kocaelispor attack 0.836 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Erzurumspor FK games / 34 Kocaelispor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 38% | Draw 32% | Kocaelispor 30%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Kocaelispor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Erzurumspor FK are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Erzurumspor FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights