🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Erzurumspor FK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Erzurumspor FK host Kasımpaşa at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.55 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.019 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Erzurumspor FK games / 34 Kasımpaşa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 40% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 31%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Kasımpaşa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Erzurumspor FK at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Erzurumspor FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights